Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
