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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated his opponent in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in recent years amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd